Ana Palacio al habla...

Can Spain Show European Leadership? Jun 5, 2023 ANA PALACIO In an era of geopolitical rebalancing, Europe needs a more cohesive stance in international forums, together with stronger strategic partnerships, to enhance its global influence. Spain can contribute to these goals when it assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU next month – if domestic politics do not get in the way. MADRID – Just hours after Spain’s ruling Socialist Party suffered significant setbacks in regional and local elections, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that the parliamentary election, scheduled for the end of the year, will be held early – on July 23. With Spain set to assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on July 1, the timing is far from ideal. stiglitz318_Drew AngererGetty Images_ira Politics 3 Western Industrial Policy and International Law JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ explains how to minimize the political risks of new spending packages in the US and Europe. A country holding the Council of the EU presidency has six months to chair meetings, coordinate policy work, and ensure continuity – in short, to advance the bloc’s agenda. But the rotation of the presidency is set years in advance, and intervening events emerge. Consequently, the presidency has been occupied by lame duck governments, and some – for example, French President Emmanuel Macron – use it as part of a domestic election campaign. But what is extraordinary is to call snap elections a month before assuming the helm of the Council. It will not be smooth sailing after Spain’s turn either. Hungary is slated to take over in the second half of 2024, but the European Parliament is already questioning the country’s ability to “fulfill this task credibly” in view of its “lack of compliance with EU law and values.” This is the latest manifestation of a deepening divide between the EU’s liberal democracies and its illiberal democracies, particularly Hungary and Poland (which is scheduled to take over the Council of the EU presidency in 2025). For now, however, it is the political ructions in Spain that are threatening the Council’s agenda. And they have come at a time when the EU is battered by crises and a war rages in its backyard. While it managed to keep the lights on and stay warm last winter, the question of energy security following the abrupt cutoff of Russian hydrocarbons remains unsettled. Meanwhile, the single market – the beating heart of the EU – is showing signs of strain, as internal imbalances intensify. The recent relaxation of state-aid rules – a response to the subsidies included in America’s Inflation Reduction Act – further distorts the playing field. Against this backdrop, an unfocused or improvisational Council presidency is the last thing Europe needs. Raising the stakes further, Spain’s presidency covers the last six months before the European Parliament enters election mode – a crucial period for tying up loose ends and delivering progress on vital issues. At a time of profound political uncertainty, making the most of this “end-of-mandate” presidency will be virtually impossible. The fact that Sánchez has so far remained mostly silent about his government’s priorities for its presidency – a notable break with convention – reinforces this assessment. What is known so far is that Spain will focus on artificial intelligence, strengthening European cybersecurity, and the digital transformation. Beyond these issues, however, it should place a high priority on advancing the clean-energy transition, enhancing the EU’s industrial base, and establishing an EU-level “nucleus of power” that is capable of advancing the bloc’s long-term interests and bolstering its role as a strategic actor. The EU has long operated as more of an intergovernmental body than a federal one, with member governments – especially the strongest few – dominating decision-making. As a result, it has failed to establish a unified position in a number of key areas, particularly foreign policy, security, and defense. There has been much talk about strengthening Europe’s common defense capabilities and achieving “strategic autonomy.” And many have called for a move away from unanimity in foreign policy, in order to enhance the EU’s flexibility and decisiveness. But, beyond the European Peace Facility and joint-procurement initiatives, little concrete action has been taken. If the EU is to help determine the direction of global governance, it must carve out a place for itself in a changing world order. This will require far more concerted action, including deepening engagement with the Global South, not least Latin America – a region that the EU has long consigned to the margins of its foreign policy. Along with Africa, Latin America is a “swing region” that can tilt the global scales toward the kind of rules-based order the EU wants – or toward something else entirely. This is not lost on EU leaders. In a confidential paper sent to foreign ministers last year, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell called for a “qualitative leap in relations” with Latin America and the Caribbean within 18 months. But achieving that goal will require firm leadership, not least because the region presents obvious political challenges. Latin America appears to have been swept, yet again, by a “pink tide,” with left-wing governments in power in 12 countries, and political dissatisfaction is pervasive – a recipe for upheaval. Meanwhile, China has expanded its influence in the region, becoming Latin America’s second-largest trading partner. There are concrete policies that the EU can pursue now that would counter China’s influence and put Europe on a stronger strategic footing in Latin America and beyond. For example, the EU should work to finalize long-pending free-trade agreements. Where obstacles to full implementation are insurmountable, agreements can be split into parts, so that less contentious provisions can be ratified. Last year’s Interim Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Chile shows that this is possible. Europe must also make the most of its upcoming summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which offers an important opportunity to strengthen relations. Spain, which played a key role in the EU’s early efforts to forge a Latin America policy, should help lead the way. A more cohesive stance in international forums, together with stronger strategic partnerships, would enhance Europe’s influence in this era of global rebalancing. Spain could make a tangible contribution to these goals when it assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU next month – but only if Sánchez can prevent domestic politics from getting in the way. Ana Palacio ANA PALACIO Writing for PS since 2011 147 Commentaries Follow Ana Palacio, a former minister of foreign affairs of Spain and former senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank Group, is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University.