Manualillos para una crísis ( 2 )-Los Tipos

Un dilema que nos traerá problemas...

Text .Por Jon Hilsenrath

A medida que se acerca la fecha de la próxima reunión de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos en los primeros días de noviembre, se está cocinando un debate sobre cómo y cuándo se debe señalar la posibilidad de un incremento en las tasas de interés.

La Fed ha dicho desde marzo que mantendrá las tasas bajas por un "período extenso". Sin embargo, mucho antes de que las suba tendrá que dar una señal pública a los mercados financieros.

Debido a que la recuperación apenas empieza y se cree que será muy débil, muchos funcionarios del banco central se sienten cómodos, por ahora, con dejar las tasas muy bajas. No obstante, están comenzando a diseñar la estrategia para cambiar la retórica del "período extenso".

Tales asuntos de estrategias de comunicación probablemente estarán en el orden del día cuando los funcionarios se reúnan en la próxima reunión del Comité de Mercados Abiertos de la Fed, el cual fija la política de tasas de interés, programada para el 3 y 4 de noviembre. La tasa de fondos federales, la de referencia parea la Fed, actualmente está entre 0 y 0,25%.

A lo largo de los últimos meses, las discusiones en la Fed se han centrado en otros asuntos. La última reunión fue marcada por un debate interno sobre el curso de su plan de US$1,25 billones (millones de millones) para comprar valores respaldados por hipotecas. Los funcionarios que argumentaron a favor de reducir el programa perdieron, una victoria para aquellos que siguen preocupados por la debilidad de la economía.

Los inversionistas han sido hipersensibles a las señales de que la Fed pueda estar cerca de subir las tasas. Los mercados de futuros están incluyendo en su precio una alta probabilidad de un pequeño aumento de tasas para mediados de 2010.

Los funcionarios de la Fed no tienen claro el panorama económico. Podrían esperar más si la economía tiene un mal desempeño o moverse con celeridad si se recupera rápidamente.

"El pronóstico más razonable es decir que la recuperación será un poco lenta y pesada", dijo James Bullard, presidente del banco de la Reserva Federal en San Luis, en una entrevista.

En las próximas semanas, en discursos y posiblemente en el comunicado de política de la Fed, los funcionarios podrían tratar de fijar referente para sabes qué sería necesario para motivar aumentos de tasas.

Muchos se concentran en la tasa de desempleo. Parte del mandato de la Fed comprende un requerimiento para que dirija a la economía estadounidense hacia un "empleo total", lo que significa una tasa de desempleo baja, pero no tan baja que cause inflación. En 9,8% y posiblemente al alza, muchos funcionarios creen que el alto desempleo está presionando a la inflación a la baja.

Otros factores están en juego. Los funcionarios han visto en las últimas semanas un aumento en los precios del oro, el declive del dólar, fuertes recuperaciones en las economías de los mercados emergentes y el repunte de los mercados financieros, todos posibles señales de inflación. Ninguno de estos movimientos ha sido lo suficientemente fuerte para causar alarma. Es por esto que los funcionarios parecen estar contentos por ahora con la expectativa del mercado de incrementos de tasas a mediados del próximo año.

Por su parte, el presidente de la Fed, Ben Bernanke, opinó el viernes sobre el debate sobre lo que los funcionarios deberían hacer con los bancos que son tan grandes que sería peligroso dejarlos colapsar. Mervyn King, gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, propuso dividirlos en bancos más pequeños. Bernanke, en una conferencia de la Fed, dijo que no estaba de acuerdo.

Los grandes bancos podrían ser necesarios para ayudar a financiar las grandes y complejas firmas multinacionales. Bernanke dijo que prefiere "un acercamiento más sutil" que no borre el "beneficio económico de las firmas financieras multifuncionales internacionales".

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit
www.djreprints.com
EmailPrinter FriendlyOrder ReprintsShare: facebook
StumbleUpon
Digg
Twitter
Yahoo! Buzz
Fark
Reddit
LinkedIn
del.icio.us
MySpace
.
Add a CommentAll comments will display your real name.
Journal Community..Want to participate in the discussion?
Register for Free
.Or log in or become a subscriber now for complete Journal access.

Track Replies to my comment
Go to Comments tab..ClearPost...Related Articles and Blogs from WSJ.com .
Iran To Turn Down Uranium Deal OCT 24. 2009 .
Our New Paymasters OCT 23. 2009 .
Kim Strassel: The Chicago Way OCT 23. 2009 .
Notable & Quotable OCT 22. 2009 .
.Related News From the Web .
Aterciopelados canta "The Price of Silence" en la ONU OCT 23. 2009
celestrellas.com
.Acusados en caso Anna Nicole Smith a audiencia OCT 12. 2009
celestrellas.com ...Sponsored by
Back To ...
Back To..MSN Money Homepage.MSN Money Investing...
nullEmail Newsletters and AlertsThe latest news and analysis delivered to your in-box. Check the boxes below to sign up.
WSJ.com Email Features RTE Newsletter News Alert SubmitThe email address null is already associated with another account. Please enter a different email address:
Enter Your Email

Sign UpSIGN UP New! To sign up for Keyword or Symbol Alerts click here.To view or change all of your email settings, visit the Email Setup Center..Thank you !
You will receive in your inbox.
To view or change all of your email settings, visit the Email Setup Center.
nullEmail Newsletters and AlertsThe latest news and analysis delivered to your in-box. Check the boxes below to sign up.
WSJ.com Email Features This Week's Most Popular On the Editorial Page SubmitThe email address null is already associated with another account. Please enter a different email address:
Enter Your Email

Sign UpSIGN UP Manage Email Preferences.Thank you !
You will receive in your inbox.
Manage Email Preferences
Video .
previous next Deadly Day in Baghdad
1:38 . Obama Declares H1N1 National Emergency
1:45 . Pakistan Retakes Taliban Stronghold
1:41 . New Treatment for Blindness
4:40 . Palestinian Election Call Causes Turmoil
1:59 . Tech Earnings Exceed Expectations
1:59 . Gun Battles in Rio
1:18 . Driving Your New Bentley Past the Bread Lines
3:11 . WSJ's Spiegel: Afghan War At Critical Stage
1:52 . Seib on Why Afghanistan is no Vietnam for the U.S.
2:14 . Obama Helps Democratic Candidates Build War Chests
1:43 . Issues Facing Educators Today, Part 2
11:33 . Issues Facing Educators Today, Part 1
13:23 . News Hub: Profiling the Tech Winners and Losers
2:02 . News Hub: USA Network To Premier 'White Collar'
1:11 ...Most Popular In Europe.ReadEmailedVideoCommented.1.The Sex-Housework Link .2.Learning to Love Insider Trading .3.Opinion: Best of the Web Today: Rules for Presidents .4.AT&T, Google Battle Over Web Rules .5.Probe Widening in Galleon Case Subscriber Content Read Preview
.1.Probe Widening in Galleon Case Subscriber Content Read Preview
.2.The Sex-Housework Link .3.Bridge: The Game That Trumps All .4.Deadly Blasts Rock Baghdad .5.Vienna's Golden Ringstrasse .
1.Obama Declares H1N1 National Emergency.2.Driving Your New Bentley Past the Bread Lines.3.An Armored Truck Gets Tough On Crime.4.Pakistan Retakes Taliban Stronghold.5.New Treatment for Blindness.
1. Opinion: It's His Rubble Now526 comments .2. Opinion: The Chicago Way487 comments .3. China, India Stoke 21st-Century Rivalry253 comments .4. House Leaders Woo Centrists to Back Public Plan183 comments .5. Iran Says It Can't Meet Deadline on Nuclear Proposal136 comments .
Most Read Articles Feed
Most Emailed Feed
Most Popular Video Feed
Most Commented Feed
..Editors' Picks.
previousnext.
Mexico's Cops Seek Upgrade ...
Dole, Swedish Filmmaker Square Off...
Whites That Make Fall Meals Better ...
City Drums Out Garage Bands From Haven ...
All Hail the Sacred Texts of Golf ...
Vienna's Golden Ringstrasse ...
The Ever-Popular Toga ...
Kiawah's Rise in the Fall ...
One Hundred Chinese Pictures ...
'Amelia': Off Course ...
What's Behind All the NFL Blowouts ...
Famed Fossil Loses Avian Perch ...
Making Bruce Lee a Lucrative Brand .
Subscriber Content Read Preview
..
Latin Food on the Hudson ...
Clijsters Slows Down to Speed Up ...
Apple Improves iMac and MacBook ..... nullEmail Newsletters and AlertsThe latest news and analysis delivered to your in-box. Check the boxes below to sign up.
WSJ.com Email Features RTE Newsletter News Alert SubmitThe email address null is already associated with another account. Please enter a different email address:
Enter Your Email

Sign UpSIGN UP New! To sign up for Keyword or Symbol Alerts click here.To view or change all of your email settings, visit the Email Setup Center..Thank you !
You will receive in your inbox.
To view or change all of your email settings, visit the Email Setup Center.nullEmail Newsletters and AlertsThe latest news and analysis delivered to your in-box. Check the boxes below to sign up.
WSJ.com Email Features This Week's Most Popular On the Editorial Page SubmitThe email address null is already associated with another account. Please enter a different email address:
Enter Your Email

Sign UpSIGN UP Manage Email Preferences.Thank you !
You will receive in your inbox.
Manage Email PreferencesVideo .previous next Opinion Daniel Henninger: We're All Balloon Boys Now 3:09 .Opinion History of Government Health Care and Costs 3:22 .Opinion Economy Watch: Dow Hits High; Dollar Hits Low 5:20 .Opinion Swine Flu Fears 7:00 .Opinion A Decadent Nobel 2:45 .Opinion Freedom, Inc. 3:44 .Opinion Obama's Choice: Decision Time in Afghanistan 6:50 .Opinion Reality Check: Where Are the Jobs? 5:45 .Opinion Countrywide Political Loans 1:44 .Opinion Michael Moore's 'Socialist' President 3:13 .Opinion How Democrats Plan to Push Through ObamaCare 2:48 .Opinion Democrats Trail in NJ and VA Governor's Races 5:53 .Opinion Talking to Iran: Will Patience Pay Off? 6:09 .Opinion Obama, Dictators, and Democrats 2:51 .Opinion The 60th Anniversary of Communist China 3:49 ...Editors' Picks.previousnext.Mexico's Cops Seek Upgrade ...Dole, Swedish Filmmaker Square Off...Whites That Make Fall Meals Better ...City Drums Out Garage Bands From Haven ...All Hail the Sacred Texts of Golf ...Vienna's Golden Ringstrasse ...The Ever-Popular Toga ...Kiawah's Rise in the Fall ...One Hundred Chinese Pictures ...'Amelia': Off Course ...What's Behind All the NFL Blowouts ...Famed Fossil Loses Avian Perch ...Making Bruce Lee a Lucrative Brand .Subscriber Content Read Preview
..Latin Food on the Hudson ...Clijsters Slows Down to Speed Up ...Apple Improves iMac and MacBook .....Journal Communityclose window..Hello .Your question to the Journal Community Your comments on articles will show your real name and not a username.Why?
Why use your real name? The Journal Community encourages thoughtful dialogue and meaningful connections between real people. We require the use of your full name to authenticate your identity. The quality of conversations can deteriorate when real identities are not provided.
Please enter your first and last nameFirst name: Last name: . Create a Journal Community profile to avoid this message in the future. (As a member you agree to use your real name when participating in the Journal Community)
.PostCancel.Privacy PolicyCommunity Rules..Notice: .Your participation access with Journal Community has been disabled due to violation of Journal Community Guidelines.
If you feel you have reached this status change in error, please contact TBD@wsj.com

back to top
f
WSJ.com Account:
My AccountSubscriber Billing InfoCreate an Account:
Register for FreeSubscribe NowHelp & Information Center:
HelpCustomer ServiceContact UsNew on WSJ.comTour the new JournalAbout:
News LicensingAdvertisingConferencesAbout Dow JonesPrivacy Policy - UpdatedSubscriber Agreement & Terms of Use - UpdatedCopyright PolicyJobs at WSJ.comFuture Leadership Program
WSJ.com:
Site MapHomeWorldU.S.BusinessMarketsMarket DataTechPersonal FinanceLife & StyleOpinionAutosCareersReal EstateSmall BusinessCorrectionsTools & Formats
Today's PaperVideo CenterGraphicsColumnsBlogsTopicsGuidesAlertsNewslettersMobilePodcastsRSS FeedsJournal Community
- Message Center
WSJ on TwitterWSJ on FacebookMy Journal
Digital Network
WSJ.comMarketwatch.comBarrons.comSmartMoney.comAllThingsD.comFINS.comFiLife.comBigCharts.comFar Eastern Economic Review
Virtual Stock ExchangeWSJ U.S. EditionWSJ Asia EditionWSJ Europe EditionWSJ India PageForeign language editions:WSJ ChineseWSJ PortugueseWSJ SpanishACAP Enabled
Copyright ©2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
.Save to ↓ More.
Save This ↓ More.
Saved ↓ More.

Please log in or register for free to use Save This.

Log InRegister.What is Save This?
Save to+ New CollectionGo to Save & Share »
Name your new Collection and click save.
SaveCancel.Go to Save & Share »
Go to Save & Share ».Journal Communityclose window ..Hello, .Your comments on articles will show your real name and not a username.Why?
Why use your real name? The Journal Community encourages thoughtful dialogue and meaningful connections between real people. We require the use of your full name to authenticate your identity. The quality of conversations can deteriorate when real identities are not provided.
Create a Journal Community profile to avoid this message in the future. (As a member you agree to use your real name when participating in the Journal Community)
.PostCancel.Privacy PolicyCommunity Rules..This feature requires membership in the Journal Community.
Become a member to get the most from your Wall Street Journal experience. It's free and easy to join.
As a member, you agree to use your full name when participating.
BECOME A MEMBER JOIN LATER .Privacy PolicyCommunity Rules..
FD HIDDEN DIV